Welcome to Status Update — a free Friday newsletter featuring long and short stories, general ramblings from the week that was, the most interesting things to have recently caught my eye and any other golf-related nonsense I believe to be worth your time.
The Opening Drive
I’ve been thinking about bias (not Len, but RIP) a lot lately, especially as it relates to professional golf and those who cover it (i.e., the industry in which I find myself). In a world of hot takes, 24/7 news cycles and the race for clicks, big media has forced itself to operate within a realm filled with biases.
Even believing yourself to be unbiased is, in fact, a bias in itself. I believe it is called the bias bias, although someone will have to fact check me on that one.
Whenever I say the same word consecutively, my mind instantly drifts to the Belushi’s SNL skit. Cheeseburger. Cheeseburger.
The point is: Everyone is biased. Whether you want to believe it or not, you are. Sorry, pal. You aren’t special. And bias is just another word for a blind spot, so how do we get rid of them?
I think Justin Thomas’ recent win at the RBC Heritage and the subsequent commentary (or recency bias) provides a great opportunity to dive even deeper into this subject.
Golf Channel’s midafternoon show, Golf Today, had a segment where Eamon Lynch stated that he believed Thomas to be the greatest American golfer of his generation. Others have followed up in saying Thomas is back to being a major championship contender.
They use information which helps their case because why wouldn’t they? That’s what you’re supposed to do.
Thomas has 16 PGA Tour wins, two major championships, a Players win, a reign as world No. 1, a strong Presidents Cup and Ryder Cup résumé and a FedEx Cup crown. Not too shabby.
After a brutal year on the greens (his Achilles heel), Thomas is now 24th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained putting. He is gaining nearly 0.50 strokes per round with the putter in hand — the best mark of his career, even better than his 2017 season. It was instrumental in breaking his three-year winless drought.
He returns to Quail Hollow next month for a major championship he has been stellar at. Twice a winner of the PGA Championship, Thomas’ trek to Charlotte represents the first time the major has returned to the Queen City since…you guessed it…Thomas’ 2017 PGA victory at Quail Hollow.
With this information, you’d be dumb not to agree with both of the assertions above, but this is only half the picture. What about the other players? What about Thomas’ other skillsets? What about his major championship form as a whole?
Brooks Koepka has five major championships. Jordan Spieth may have less wins (13) but he has one more major (and three different ones at that). And then there is Scottie Scheffler who has 13 wins including two majors, two Players Championships and an Olympic gold medal. And oh yeah, he’s been the world No. 1 for the last 100 weeks (recency bias?).
With just a little more color, the question goes from “Is Justin Thomas the best American player of his generation?” to “Is Justin Thomas a top-three American player of his generation?”
Both answers may be no!
As for his major championship prospects, consider me a skeptic. Now, I should warn you, I may have some biases of my own against Thomas. I like that he wears his emotions on his sleeve, but he has a tendency to come across as a wee bit of a punk! Dare I say cringey. I know my European readers agree with me there!
Thomas’ major record, of course, includes two major wins. It also includes two course records (Erin Hills and Winged Foot), but it also has been putrid as of late. In his last 11 major starts since his 2022 PGA win, Thomas has five missed cuts and five finishes outside the top 30.
Selection bias!
His lone top 10 came at last year’s PGA Championship, which does not count because it was held at Valhalla. No bias there, simply stating a fact. U.S. based majors have a way of testing one’s floor and Valhalla was the rare exception where instead the ceiling was looked at.
Now, I will give Thomas some credit in that his floor was recently redone. The middle rounds of 69 in Hilton Head were performances I have been looking for out of him for quite some time. They served as crucial links in a four-round chain. Too often, Thomas had one link that was weak and snapped.
While his floor is in much better shape and received a new coat in the form of a renewed confidence on the greens, it may be the wrong finish for major championship golf.
It is just a slightly different shade than the rest of the house.
Putting leads to wins on the PGA Tour, but it doesn’t at major championships. Instead — much like stints in church parking lots as a youth — major championships are driving tests.
Just look at some of the most recent winners. They are all elite drivers, or at the very least, trending towards elite. Rory McIlroy. Scottie Scheffler. Bryson DeChambeau. Xander Schauffele. Jon Rahm. Brooks Koepka.
Yes, I omitted the Hamburgler’s win at LACC. Call that whatever bias you want.
Thomas is experiencing the worst driving season of his career. He is ranked outside the top 100 in strokes gained off the tee and in the bottom half of distance from the edge of the fairway (i.e. BIG misses). He is sensational from the fairway in, which is why at a golf course like Harbour Town where the driver is taken out of his hands (and his peers’) he has a great chance to find success. And he did.
But at a big ballpark where drivers are required? Where big misses are penalized (unlike the PGA Tour)? I’m still hesitant to push him to the top tier of contenders and past players like Ludvig Åberg and Collin Morikawa.
Or maybe I’m biased to, but at least now you have all the information.